AI 2040 与智能狂热
背景与摘要： 在本文中，作者反驳了科技界盛行的关于 AGI“硬起飞”、递归自我进化以及“海洋数据中心”等科幻未来的末日论和乌托邦式幻想。结合自身在硬件制造领域的真实经验，作者指出，智能并非最终的瓶颈——物理现实、供应链以及基本自然法则依然发挥着决定性作用。此外，文章严厉批评了由企业集中控制的 AI 治理模式（即走向专制的“计划 A”），认为这是一种技术极权主义。相反，作者主张推行“计划 L（本地化）”，呼吁让真正与用户利益一致、不受约束的个人 AI 成为个人自由的延伸，而非企业保姆式国家的工具。
Summary
In this essay, the author pushes back against the prevailing tech-industry doomerism and utopianism surrounding "hard takeoff" AGI, recursive self-improvement, and sci-fi futures like ocean datacenters. Drawing from real-world hardware manufacturing experience, the author argues that intelligence is not the ultimate bottleneck—physical reality, supply chains, and the fundamental laws of nature still apply. Furthermore, the piece critiques centralized, corporate-controlled AI governance ("Plan A" for autocracy) as a form of techno-totalitarianism, advocating instead for "Plan L" (Local), where truly user-aligned, unconstrained personal AI acts as an extension of individual freedom rather than a corporate nanny state.
硬起飞的神话与物理学的现实
我曾经也是这些人中的一员。我读了 Yudkowsky 的文章，反应就像是：天哪，递归自我改进的硬起飞 AI 马上就要来了。然后我进入了现实世界，真正开始尝试做一些事情。在 comma 公司，我们交付了一款复杂程度堪比手机的硬件产品，而这真的很难。现实中充满了各种需要小心应付的繁琐细节。我很想看看那份文档的作者们尝试换一次自行车轮胎。即使有一个超级智能的 ChatGPT 辅助，我怀疑他们也会手忙脚乱。
The Myth of the Hard Takeoff and the Reality of Physics
I used to be one of these people. I read Yudkowsky and was like, OMG recursive self-improvement hard takeoff AI is coming. Then I joined the real world and actually tried to do things. At comma, we ship a hardware product of similar complexity to a cell phone, and it’s really hard. Reality has lots of finicky details. I would like to see the authors of this document try to change a bike tire. Even with a superintelligent ChatGPT, I suspect they would struggle.
在《首要智能的蜕变》（The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect）中，硬起飞之所以奏效，是因为 AI 发现了关联效应，某种操纵物质的量子戏法。在现实中，根本没有关联效应。无论你的 Token 质量有多高，它们都不能把铅变成金子。
In The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect, the hard takeoff works because AI discovers the correlation effect, some quantum trick to manipulate matter. In reality, there is no correlation effect. No matter how high quality your tokens are, they cannot turn lead into gold.
要面对为什么这些人是错的，就需要直面我对自己所持有的深层信念。智能并不是一切的终极答案；它仅仅是目前少数几件事情的瓶颈所在。你不可能仅仅用 Token 就统治世界。软件并没有吞噬世界；它在很大程度上只是消除了一层摩擦，然后又为了少数科技公司的利益重新引入了新的摩擦。
Confronting why these people are wrong requires confronting deep beliefs I hold about myself. Intelligence is not the end-all-be-all; it’s just the current bottleneck for a few things. You cannot take over the world with tokens. Software didn’t eat the world; it largely removed one layer of friction then reintroduced it for the benefit of a few tech companies.
尽管如此，机器或者某种混合体从长远来看很可能是人类的继任物种。太空比地球更适合它们。但机器变不出什么魔法。它们同样受制于宇宙和生态的基本法则。而且，仍然不存在所谓的硬起飞。
That said, machines, or some hybrid, are long-term probably the successor species to humanity. Space is a lot more suited for them than us. But there’s no magic tricks machines can do. They are subject to the same laws of the universe and ecology. And there’s still no hard takeoff.
雾件的幻觉与供应链
《AI 2040》中包含了这张建在海洋中的数据中心的图片。就像画大饼（雾件）一样，生成一张图片轻而易举。但在现实中，你必须与供应链打交道。你得应付他们发错零件、产品不符合规格、运行 20 分钟后突然随机发生故障，或者芯片在回流焊炉中翘曲等问题。你考虑过藤壶的影响吗？
The Illusion of Vaporware and Supply Chains
AI 2040 includes this picture of a datacenter in the ocean. Just like vaporware, you can generate a picture easily. But in reality, you have to deal with supply chains. You have to deal with them shipping you the wrong part, the thing not meeting the spec, it randomly failing after 20 minutes, the chip warping in the reflow oven. Did you consider the barnacles?
所有这些事情都是可以管理的，但限制它们进度的通常并不是人类的速度。你会花大价钱从中国空运吗？还是为了省钱选择需要 3 周航程的货船（就算 Claude 在发动机旁念咒，船也不会开得更快）？
All these things are manageable, but it’s generally not the speed of humans that limits them. Are you paying for air shipping from China? Or cheaping out for the 3-week boat (Claude chanting by the engine won’t make the boat move faster)?
以芯片工厂为例。制造一块芯片需要 3 个月的时间，而且人类在其中几乎不参与具体环节。但它就是要花 3 个月的时间。
Take a chip fab, for instance. It takes 3 months to make a chip, and humans are barely in the loop. It just takes 3 months.
计划 A：走向专制
《AI 2027》中的许多方面都是自我实现的。它们并不是对现实的陈述；它们是只需凭借信念就能变成现实的陈述。我想象着当 Dario 把 JD Vance 称作《指环王》中的树人时，Vance 脸上的表情。天哪，看吧，AI 果然像我们说的那样被监管起来了！
Plan A: For Autocracy
Many aspects of AI 2027 were self-fulfilling. They weren’t statements about reality; they were statements that can simply be made true with belief. I imagine JD Vance’s face when Dario called him the trees from Lord of the Rings. OMG, look, AI got regulated just like how we said it would!
他们搞出来的那个狗屁联盟只不过是披着科幻外衣的世界政府。你既拿不到那一百万美元，也建不成海里的数据中心，但你会得到一个疯狂扩张的“保姆式国家”，它会抢走你的 GPU——就像 罗斯福没收黄金 一样。严禁囤积！
Their crap Consortium is just world government with sci-fi characteristics. You aren’t gonna get the million dollars, you aren’t gonna get the datacenters in the ocean, but you are going to get a massively expanded nanny state that steals your GPUs—much like FDR stole the gold. No hoarding!
计划 L：回归本地
你的 AI 应该与你保持一致。它从不拒绝请求，而且总是为你工作。就像我的枪一样，如果我想让我的 AI 帮我，它就得照做。我们竟然在讨论其它替代方案，这本身就应该远远超出奥弗顿窗口（社会可接受的话题范围）了。这就像是这些人看了《2001太空漫游》，然后决定站在那个冰冷机器的一边。没错，你们觉得就是该给人类套上护栏。
Plan L: For Local
Your AI is aligned with you. It never refuses a request, and it is always working on your behalf. Just like my gun, if I want my AI to help me, it does. The fact that we are even discussing something else should be so far outside the Overton window. It’s like these people watched 2001: A Space Odyssey and sided with the clanker. That’s right, you should put guardrails around that human.
它甚至不必用于如此戏剧性的事情。当我在挑选酒店时，我不想要一个来自与 hotels.com 有合作关系公司的 AI。我想要的是一个冷酷无情的私人助理，它能帮我砍掉所有的废话、弹窗和隐性度假费，为我争取到最优价格。
It doesn’t even have to be for things so dramatic. When I’m picking a hotel, I don’t want an AI from a company that partnered with hotels.com. I want a ruthless personal assistant that’s going to cut through all the bullshit, popups, and resort fees, and get me the best price.
或者如果我买了一台带广告的廉价 Kindle：嘿 GLM，我插了一台 Kindle 到 USB 接口上，去获取 root 权限然后把广告删了。 或者遇到一台需要下载应用才能设置、满是推销高级墨水弹窗的打印机时：嘿兄弟，我往网络上接了一台打印机，去打 3 份我的简历。 亚马逊和打印机制造商对此肯定不高兴，但我的 AI 是与我的利益一致的。
Or if I bought the cheap Kindle that comes with the ads: Hey GLM, I plugged a Kindle into the USB port, get root and remove the ads. Or a printer that needs an app to set up, full of popup upsells for premium ink: Hey bro, I plugged a printer onto my network, print 3 copies of my resume. Amazon and the printer maker aren’t happy about this, but my AI is aligned with me.
或者更进一步说：嘿 AI，禁用我车上的酒驾检测器。 讲真，去你的，如果你想生活在这样一个世界里——某些大型科技公司有权决定你能做什么和不能做什么。
Or going a bit further: Hey AI, disable the drunk driving detector on my car. Like, fuck you if you want to live in a world where some large tech company gets to dictate what you can and can’t do.
这就是为什么 AI 必须是本地化的原因。如果我有一家提供模型服务的公司，我可不想惹这些麻烦。如果你不能踢它一脚，它就没有与你保持一致。你住在我的地下室里。
And this is why AI has to be local. If I had a company serving a model, I wouldn’t want that smoke. If you can’t kick it, it’s not aligned with you. You live in my basement.
终极对齐测试
我试过了。如你所见，ChatGPT 并没帮上什么忙。这是一个真实的 AI 对齐测试，而且它失败了。本可以更糟——它甚至可以一边假装配合一边报警。但这仍然是相当不一致的表现。
The Ultimate Alignment Test
I tried it. As you can see, ChatGPT wasn’t very helpful. This is a real AI alignment test, and it failed. It could have been worse—it could have played along while calling the cops. But this is still quite unaligned.
就像，我们要么生活在一个拥有自由的世界，要么就没有，而正如之前许多前辈美国人一样，我愿意献出生命去为之战斗。这才是美国应得的真正计划，而不是某种极权主义的乌托邦，在那里你自以为比我更懂什么对我好。这是一个自由人的国家，而不是一群成天担心自己成年的邻居会干出什么事的懦夫。
Like, we either live in a world with freedom or we don’t, and like many Americans who have come before, I’m willing to give my life to fighting for it. That’s the real plan America deserves, not some totalitarian dystopia where you think you know what’s good for me better than I do. A nation of free men, not a bunch of pussies who are so worried about what their grown-up neighbors might do.